Trump Presidency Predictions

Here are 80 predictions I give for the Trump presidency from 20 January 2017 at noon to 20 January 2021 at noon.

I wrote these to be falsifiable. A good example is International number 1: “Bashar al-Assad is assassinated, commits suicide, or otherwise dies” is something that either happens or it doesn’t, which means that if it didn’t happen, I can be proven wrong. A prediction like “the Syrian War will start to go badly” is not falsifiable.

Hopefully these become more than a gotcha or told you so tool, although I fully anticipate doing that. These are more of a way to keep myself honest in 2021, so that I can’t say told you so unless I, in fact, did tell you so.

A scoring rubric follows the list of predictions.

Financial

1. The economy collapses: Dow value drops below 13,500, 80% of the drop happens within one week, and unemployment increases to 8.5% within six months of the drop. 89%
2. If this economic collapse does happen, it will occur between June 2018 and January 2019, inclusive. 50%
3. If the economy collapses, one of the Trump administration’s main arguments is that Obama caused it. 80%
4. A well-respected think tank publishes a study arguing that Trump’s deregulation is selective, helping some businesses but hurting others. 60%
5. The Federal Reserve uses negative interest rates. 60%
6. The dollar continues to be the world reserve currency: international market in oil does not begin to use another currency. 55%
7. Trump will appoint only one Secretary of the Treasury over his term. 70%
8. Congress, though led by Republicans, raises the debt ceiling — twice. Trump approves each time. 60%
9. The first budget Trump’s administration proposes will not be set to balance in the first five years, and spending will exceed revenue. 100%
10. There will be no Audit the Pentagon, though members of the Congressional Liberty caucuses will make an obvious attempt (filibuster, speeches, debate, publicity stunt, press conference, etc.). 60%
11. Trump’s administration will have five or more  positions filled by former banking executives. 60%
12. Inflation will rise to 3.5% rate between January 2018 and July 2019. 65%
13. China overtakes the US in GDP during the third or fourth year of the presidency. 70%
14. Trump pursues a weak-Dollar policy. 95%
15. Import Tariff does not happen, against Campaign-Trump’s wishes. 90%
16. NAFTA remains standing. 70%
17. Medicare, Medicaid face budget cuts. Social Security faces budget cuts. 80%
18. Trump proposes infrastructure/stimulus bill; bill is rushed to a vote (less than 1 hour per 50 pages) and passes with bipartisan (though at least 20 Republicans between the House and Senate vote no) support. 70%
19. Inventory-sales ratio crosses 1.50 before the end of 2017. 80%
20. Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa together have a higher average GDP growth rate than US for the majority of the presidency. 60%

Domestic non-financial

1. DREAMers program ends. Children are left in legal limbo with no replacement plan on the books. 55%
2. Trump will not actually build a wall with Mexico, nor will the proposal even be officially put forward by the administration. 80%
3. The immigration balance between US and Mexico will remain negative (as it has been for years) or become more negative. More people will be leaving for Mexico than are entering from Mexico. 55%
4. Immigration from India and China will increase by 120% or greater from the beginning to the end of Trump’s term. 70%
5. Roe v. Wade will still be the law by end of his term. 95%
6. Congress will pass an abortion law, but this law will be poorly worded or vague enough to have little to no practical consequence. 60%
7. Congress defunds Planned Parenthood. 60%
8. Gay Marriage will remain federally recognized as law in all 50 states; no overturn of Supreme Court decision in 2015. 70%
9. A comprehensive education bill (on or around the scale of NCLB) will pass, divided sharply along partisan lines; less than 10 Democrats will vote yes and less than 10 Republicans will vote no in the House; less than 5 Democrats will vote yes and less than 5 Republicans will vote no in the Senate. 51%
10. Trump administration does not revoke recent Justice Department order to stop private prisons. 70%
11. If Trump eliminates “job-killing environmental regulations” through executive order rather than through Congress. 60%
12. Reverses position on paid family leave legislation. 55%
13. Makes no effort to undo Citizens United. 90%
14. Common Core scrapped from federal education policy. 75%
15. Toothless legislation signed to protect the 2nd amendment; no legislation is signed that has or is even intended to have a significant impact on 2nd amendment issues. 65%
16. Ceases all refugee inflows into the US from predominantly Muslim countries. 90%
17. Trump renews indefinite detention provision of annual NDAA bill. 99%
18. Trump’s health administrators pursue voluntary vaccination policies. 59%
19. Sanctuary Cities do not end as a federal immigration policy. 70%
20. Retirement age for social security benefits is not raised. 90%

International

1. Bashar al-Assad is assassinated, commits suicide, or otherwise dies. 79%
2. Trump stops helping Saudi Arabia in the war in Yemen. 60%
3. Africa remains unstable or gets worse. Defined as: at least three countries in Africa have descended into civil war, and less than three existing civil wars have been resolved, with a net change of zero or more civil wars. 80%
4. TPP is not ratified by the requisite number of countries and slowly dies. 70%
5. Edward Snowden remains in Russia continuously for all four years. 90%
6. Somaliland is recognized as a State by the UNSC, and all five veto-holding members voting yes. 70%
7. Trump continues Obama’s legacy of easing relations with Cuba. 80%
8. Trump revokes Iran nuclear deal, reissues sanctions. 55%
9. The US does not invade Iran. 90%
10. Trump administration fully supports Israeli settlements in Palestinian territory, repudiates Two State Solution, and increases foreign financial aid to Israel from current $3bn to over $4.5bn. 60%
11. US remains in the WTO. 100%
12. US remains in the UN. 100%
13. US remains in NATO. 95%
14. US remains in G10. 90%
15. South Sudan violence declared humanitarian crisis by UN, but the US does not intervene. 65%
16. US pulls out of the 2015 Paris Agreement. 60%
17. US continues to support the NPT and all nuclear non-proliferation causes internationally. 90%
18. US becomes involved in a large-scale COIN operation in Northern Africa. 65%
19. US relations with China falter: diplomacy breaks down, Xi and Trump refuse to meet in person, Trump recognizes Taiwan or Tibet, or calls for democratic elections in Hong Kong. 70%
20. Ukraine devolves into civil war. US does not back the government; either backs opposition (proxy for Russia) or stays out altogether. 60%

Meta-Political

1. Trump’s proposed ban on foreign countries doing fundraising for American elections will pass with overwhelming support. Less than 5 Republicans across both houses will vote no, and less than 20 Democrats across both houses will vote no. 75%
2. Obamacare will be repealed, and along a strictly party-line vote: less than five Republicans vote no, and less than five Democrats vote yes. 90%
3. Trump will successfully reduce federal workforce through attrition (exempting military, public safety, and public health) by freezing workforce hiring, and though ultimately this will end, total number of federal employees will not exceed 110% current figures (excluding 2020 Census collection). 70%
4. The Trump administration’s term limit bill will not gain 2/3 majority of Senate. 55%
5. Five year ban on lobbying after government service will fail to pass Congress. 80%
6. Five year ban on lobbying after government service will will not even be taken to a vote in at least one chamber of Congress. 55%
7. The Constitution will be amended in some way. 60%
8. The Constitution will not be amended twice. 90%
9. Political polarization increases, as measured by Pew Research in this ongoing study, but the polarization will be asymmetric; the left will shift farther than the right does. 65%
10. At least one Democrat files impeachment charges against President Trump in each of the next four years. 80%
11. No noticeable progress against Gerrymandering; 2020 Census redistribution leads to further right-leaning Congressional districts. 75%
12. Republicans retain the House, but lose the overall “popular vote” composite of all districts. 55%
13. The 2018 midterm elections result in a 51, 52, or 53 seat Republican majority in the Senate. 75%
14. No Libertarian Party candidate receives more than 30% of the vote in any House, Senate, or State-level race in the 2018 mid term elections. 90%
15. No state changes its voting system to IRV (as Maine did this past year) or any other non-FPTP system. 80%
16. Congress fully ends the Office of Congressional Ethics. 70%
17. Breyer or Ginsburg will leave the court, by resignation or death, but not both. Kennedy will also leave the court, by resignation or death. 60%
18. Trump appoints a replacement to Scalia that is among the 20 names he floated during the campaign. 99%
19. Conditional on there being another vacancy, Trump nominates someone who was not on the original 20 person shortlist. 60%
20. Of the nearly 1200 PAS positions (Presidential appointment with Senate approval), greater than 70% will be white men. 80%

Scoring

To score: decide yes/no on each prediction, clump predictions into groups based on 10 point percentage ranges, and award myself one point if >50% of the predictions in the 50% category were met, 2 points if >60% of the 60% category were met, 3 points for 70%, 2 points for 80%, 1 point for 90%. If an item is ranked ending with a five, then it counts as two predictions within its category. If an item is ranked ending with a nine, it counts as three predictions within its category. Items ranked at 100% are awarded no points for being correct, but lose one whole point if incorrect. Of the nine points regularly possible, I win if I receive 5 or more.